2005/08/12投資報告展望燈號 黃(3) 1.國際油價維持在60美元以上, Fed為壓抑通膨和舒緩房地產的漲勢,宣布調升利率一碼至3.5%,市場認為12月底Fed升息至4.25%的機率超過五成,明年2月甚至可能繼續升息至4.5%,代表投資人原本認為Fed可能停止升息的看法已經被迫修正.

2.雖然7月躉售物價年增率-1.61%創三年來新低,但由於食物類為民生必需品,權重高達25%,再加上油價調漲,全年物價漲幅超過2%的風險愈來愈大.國內方面,今年來連續的寒害、水災令食物類價格飛漲,加上油價、燃氣調漲,使得7月CPI較6月上漲1.13％,因去年同期基期較高,7月CPI年增率2.37％略低於6月的2.39%.今年1-7月CPI年增率已達1.92%,高於主計處預估1.7%.

3.然而由於台灣因為油價上漲,卻無法將上漲的成本反應至售價,而導致今年一到七月對外貿易入超創二十四年來新低.因此央行目前還無意升息,傾向新台幣貶值以挽救台灣的貿易.

總結以上資訊,新台幣續貶,利率不變,外資撤出股市,引發新一波新台幣貶值.

  ¶ 18:11 0 comments

  長線看好明基(2352) 台灣自明年起(2006)LCD TV銷售量開始超越映像管,而明基是台灣LCD TV銷售排行第一名,甚至超越了Panasonic, Sharp,令人十分驚訝!現在因為和西門子手機部門的合併,引起市場部份投資人的疑慮,以致股價低估,我認為現在正是絕佳的投資機會!  ¶ 18:06 0 comments

  Stock psychology: Learning model Why it's called "Learning model"? Because people can get suggestions easily and will LEARN from the history and think the same thing will happen again. In the stk. mkt., the situation is apparently seen. It has some unique features: 1.One publicly-traded co. will provide suggestions(amazing revenue no, or future growth opportunities...or even no obvious suggestions)or maybe the public will assume something with mistake. 2.It will show apparently that everyone can benefit from that. 3.The probability of that is very high. 4.Everyone gets the wrong suggestion; yet no one finds out. This not only happens in the stk. mkt., but in life.

The effect can be enormous. In the early phase, everyone is satisfied with the stk. In the second phase, some clever people sense something wrong and get out quickly. In the last phase(maybe it prevails for several months) anyone inside will get cheated and can't pull back most of the money from the stk but still some people don't believe it and claim what they think as truth.  ¶ 16:43 0 comments